Recent market movements have been heavily influenced by escalating tensions in the Middle East, potentially leading to last week's market weakness as investors priced in the possibility of further escalation post-Passover. This sensitivity was also evident in the creeping up of oil prices towards the end of the week. Additionally, anticipation looms over the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled for May 1st, as the Fed faces challenges of sticky inflation, economic weakness, and geopolitical risks, likely prompting a dovish stance to calm markets. However, the Treasury Department's fiscal policy announcement on the same day holds even greater significance, especially concerning government spending's role in sustaining the markets and economy. With the Treasury nearing the depletion of funds in the Fed's Overnight Reverse Repo Facility, it will need to issue more long-term government debt, potentially leading to rising long-term interest rates with implications for crypto and stocks, albeit with plans for certain bond buybacks.

Meme coins have seen a remarkable surge, hitting a multi-year high in weekly trade volume, nearly reaching $80 billion. However, US stocks ended with mixed results, influenced by updates from the FED. The rally, driven by optimism over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts three times this year, has paused. Notably, high-profile figures like Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon have been offloading shares in their companies.

As Bitcoin's 4th halving approaches in April, optimism has surged, buoying the crypto market. Ethereum has postponed its major update to mid-March, promising enhancements in Layer 2 scaling, efficiency, and security. China faces economic challenges, with a weakening economy and a struggling housing market, prompting expectations of stimulus measures. Amid recessions in key nations like Japan and the UK, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain a dovish stance. These developments underscore the evolving dynamics of global markets and the interplay between economic indicators and policy decisions.

Amidst global concerns over conflicts in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine, the potential for a crisis between Taiwan and China looms large. China considers Taiwan part of its territory, and tensions could escalate into a conflict with global repercussions. With Taiwan asserting its independence and strong backing from the U.S., an outbreak of hostilities would not only involve the world's superpowers but also disrupt the global economy. As the recent Taiwanese election results create unease in Beijing. The public sentiments in Taiwan, and the likelihood of Taiwan becoming a significant flashpoint, with potential implications for the cryptocurrency landscape.

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The Federal Reserve has indicated three 0.25% forthcoming interest rate cuts in the coming year. The ongoing reduction in the Fed's reverse repo facility is boosting liquidity in the economy, and anticipated tax bracket changes in early 2024 in the US are expected to stimulate consumption. Despite claims to the contrary by central banks globally, there is an anticipation that they will initiate interest rate cuts, particularly in struggling economies like the UK, Europe, and China.

Bloomberg analysts maintain optimism about the SEC approving the spot Bitcoin ETF by January 10th. Ethereum's Decun upgrade is confirmed for January 17th, providing a potential catalyst for increased scalability in ETH and its Layer 2s. 

The recent decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to suspend further rate hikes has provided the financial markets with a more transparent and defined outlook. This strategic move, coupled with the revelation of a weaker-than-anticipated October jobs report, has sparked optimism among investors, who now anticipate that interest rates will remain unchanged when the Federal Reserve reconvenes in December. This sentiment was notably reflected in an upbeat session in the stock market, where the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining existing interest rates resonated positively with market participants.

 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's communication during this period further contributed to the positive atmosphere, signaling a more cautious approach to potential future increases in interest rates.

In tandem with these developments, the U.S. Treasury made a significant announcement regarding the deliberate slowdown of longer-dated debt auctions. This strategic decision had a tangible impact on the market, leading to a decrease in bond yields. The decline in bond yields, in turn, played a role in uplifting overall market sentiment, as investors interpreted this move as a favorable signal for the broader economic landscape. 

The potential impact of an escalating conflict in the Middle East could disrupt oil and gas supply chains, leading to inflation. It's noted that there have been concerns about crypto being used to fund certain groups in the conflict. This could lead to sanctions against larger crypto entities and potential bans on cryptocurrencies in some Middle Eastern countries.

The ongoing trial of SBF (Sam Bankman-Fried) and how it's shifting the focus from specific crypto companies like FTX and Alameda Research to the broader crypto industry. The trial's influence on crypto prices is noticeable.

The SEC's decision on spot Bitcoin ETF applications is also anticipated, with expectations of another delay. While approval could set the stage for future growth, it may not guarantee an immediate surge in Bitcoin prices.

The situation seems to be that several countries are making changes in their energy policies. The UK, Sweden, Canada, and the United States are all adjusting their approaches to energy. This is happening at the same time as concerns about the climate and the global economy are increasing.

One noticeable change is that some countries are becoming more accepting of nuclear power and are trying to lower oil prices. Germany is also shifting to the right in its politics, and there are worries among some people about the upcoming United Nations meeting on climate change.

This ongoing shift away from fossil fuels was expected to have economic consequences for regular people, especially those in the lower and middle classes. As we head into winter in the Northern Hemisphere, there are concerns about the availability of certain types of energy, like diesel and heating oil, which don't have easy substitutes. This could create problems, and there's a worry that other countries might try to take advantage of these issues to cause divisions in our own country.

We have ongoing concerns about stablecoins. It appears that there is a trend of derisking from MakerDAO, potentially linked to a significant decrease in the amount of USDC supporting circulating DAI. This situation could be contributing to selling pressure on USDC. If concerns regarding MakerDAO are indeed influencing the instability in DAI and USDC prices, then the focus may shift to GUSD and USDT. A noteworthy point is that a significant portion of GUSD in circulation serves as backing for DAI, which has caused challenges in maintaining its peg. The uncertainties surrounding MakerDAO seem to stem from the apprehension that regulatory authorities could seize or freeze real-world assets supporting DAI, as demonstrated by the recent SEC action involving a Bitcoin miner's assets. Similar circumstances occurring with MakerDAO could have notable implications.

The market sentiment is currently high, bolstered by the economy's resilience in the face of higher rates. Inflation appears to be under control, further contributing to positive investor sentiment. Notably, the market performance in the first half of the year has been the strongest since 1983, primarily driven by the influence of big tech companies capitalizing on the future prospects of AI. Additionally, the economy has benefited from low energy prices, supporting its growth.

Ripple's partial victory over the SEC served as a morale boost for the crypto industry. However, it is not the sole reason to remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the sector.

Irrespective of potential bear markets, the adoption of crypto, blockchain, and web3 technologies continues to rise, with major corporations leading the way. Recent research by Coinbase and The Block revealed that over half of the Fortune 100 companies in the United States have already integrated these technologies into their operations, and more are expected to follow suit.

In response to low inflation figures, the Federal Reserve opted to halt rate hikes, aligning with the expectations of investors. Notably, institutional investors in the United States have initiated buying activities in anticipation of the potential approval of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF application.

Following the release of May's data, major banks have adjusted their forecasts for China's GDP growth in 2023, revising them downward.

Furthermore, oil prices have experienced a decline in response to recent developments in China.

Given these circumstances, we will adopt a cautious approach in our long-term investment decisions and patiently await more substantial pullback levels that align with suitable long setups.

In light of the ongoing developments and market conditions, we are closely monitoring the actions and decisions of the Federal Reserve (FED) before determining the appropriate direction for our assets. This cautious approach allows us to consider the potential impact of regulatory changes, economic factors, and market trends on our investment strategy.

By carefully considering the actions of the FED and evaluating market conditions, we aim to make informed decisions that maximize the potential returns and benefits for our investors.